Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach

Quote of the week. “Character is much easier kept than recovered.”– Thomas Paine

Fewer “For Sale” signs. Existing home sales set a record in September – they rose by 9.4%, spurred by the federal credit for first-time buyers. (That $8,000 credit is valid through November 30.) September’s sales pace was the hottest in two years and the median sales price fell at the slowest pace in a year, according to the National Association of Realtors.¹

Leading indicators rise notably. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index went north 1.0% in September, marking the sixth straight monthly increase. The LEI monitors developments in categories such as jobless claims, housing permits, interest-rate spreads and consumer confidence.²

PPI drops. In September, inflation was not a factor at factories. Producer prices dropped 0.6% (core PPI fell 0.1%). PPI has seesawed positive and negative across the last three months of data.³

Housing starts rise. However, the 0.5% September increase announced by the Commerce Department was less than economists anticipated. Housing permits decreased in September for the second time in three months.³

Gold, copper, oil all advance. Gold prices gained $4.90 last week to finish at $1,055.60 an ounce Friday. Prices have risen 15.72% across the last three weeks. Copper had its best week since mid-July, posting a 6.57% gain last week. Oil prices advanced $1.48 per barrel last week to settle at $80.50 Friday.⁴

Slight losses for stocks. The S&P 500 lost 0.7% last week, while the NASDAQ ended down 0.1% for the same time span. The DJIA retreated 0.2% last week to close at 9,972.18 Friday.⁵

(Source: CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 10/23/09)^6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. The names of two U.S. state capital cities rhyme but share no vowels. Name the two cities.

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: What is the timepiece with the most moving parts? (It’s been around for centuries.)

Last week’s riddle answer: The hourglass.

Citations.
1 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a4.DIzmpog2A [10/23/09]
2 npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2009/10/leading_indicators_up_again.html [10/22/09]
3 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDFJnk7txix0 [10/20/09]
4 blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/10/23/data-points-energy-metals-150/ [10/23/09]
5 cnbc.com/id/33452868 [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/? [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F23%2F08&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F22%2F04&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F22%2F99&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F23%2F08&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F22%2F04&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F22%2F99&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F23%2F08&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F22%2F04&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/23/09]
6 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F22%2F99&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/23/09]
7 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/23/09]
7 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [10/23/09]
8 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/1999/ofn100699.pdf [10/6/99]

These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach.

Quote of the week. “Life is 10% of what happens to me and 90% of how I react to it.”– John Maxwell

A consumer rebound? While U.S. retail sales fell 1.5% in September without the C.A.R.S. program, there was a hidden positive. Minus automotive purchases, total retail sales rose 0.5% last month. Economists polled by Briefing.com had forecast a 2.1% overall sales decline and +0.2% sales ex-auto.¹

The latest on inflation. In September, the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2%. Core CPI also rose 0.2%. From September 2008 to September 2009, CPI fell 1.3% while core CPI rose 1.5%.²

No 2010 SSI COLA. Chalk it up to CPI: Social Security incomes will stay flat next year. Last week, President Obama lent his support for a $250 one-time stimulus check for those receiving SSI and federal pensions. Basic Medicare Part B premiums won’t go up in 2010 either. Neither will 401(k) contribution limits, according to the I.R.S.³

A consumer confidence asterisk. Analysts polled by MarketWatch expected a 72.0 preliminary reading from the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index this month. Instead, the index came in at 69.4, which weighed on stocks Friday.⁴

Oil gains 9.4% in a week. Demand is certainly back – crude futures closed at a 52-week high of $78.53 per barrel on the NYMEX Friday.⁵

Industry is healthy. Last week, the Federal Reserve noted that industrial output rose 5.2% in 3Q 2009. This represents the first increase since the recession began and the best quarter in four years.⁵

Dow reaches 10,000. It didn’t stay there Friday: it gained 1.3% last week, but settled at 9,995.91 at the bell. The S&P 500 closed the week at 1,087.68, and the NASDAQ wrapped up Friday at 2,156.80.⁶

(Source: CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 10/16/09)^7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. What is the timepiece with the most moving parts? (It’s been around for centuries.)

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: Name two English words (longer than two letters) that both begin and end with the letters “he” (in that order).

Last week’s riddle answer: Headache and heartache.

Citations.
1 money.cnn.com/2009/10/14/news/economy/September_retail_sales/?postversion=2009101409 [10/14/09]
2 msnbc.msn.com/id/33344177/ns/business-businessweekcom/ [10/15/09]
3 baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.cola16oct16,0,2468505.story [10/15/09]
4 marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-drops-in-oct-2009-10-16 [10/16/09]
5 marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-tap-fresh-one-year-high-atop-78-2009-10-16 [10/16/09]
6 cnbc.com/id/33347221 [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/? [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F16%2F08&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F15%2F04&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F15%2F99&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F16%2F08&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F15%2F04&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F15%2F99&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F16%2F08&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F15%2F04&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/16/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F15%2F99&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/16/09]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/16/09]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [10/16/09]
9 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/1999/ofn100699.pdf [10/6/99]

These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach

Quote of the week. “Nothing can stop the man with the right mental attitude from achieving his goal; nothing on earth can help the man with the wrong mental attitude.”– Thomas Jefferson

Service sector grows again. Some great news from a closely watched indicator: last month, America’s service sector grew for the first time since August 2008. The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector index rose to 50.9 last month from 48.9 in August.¹

Metals make headlines. For most of last week, the dollar was weak, and that helped gold. Gold prices rose 4% on the week, settling Friday at $1.048.60 an ounce after reaching a new record peak ($1,056.30) on Thursday. Silver futures closed Friday at $17.69 an ounce. At the end of last week, gold was +18.6% for 2009. Other metals YTD as of last Friday? Silver, +56.6%; platinum, +42.3%; palladium, +71.6%.^2,3

Trade gap unexpectedly narrows. Surprise: our trade deficit unexpectedly slimmed down from $31.9 billion in July to $30.7 billion in August. The August data showed U.S. exports hitting a peak for 2009.⁴

More mall purchases. For the first time since July 2008, we have seen a year-over-year rise in sales among major retailers. Analysts expected mall sales to drop 1% last month, but the International Council of Shopping Centers reported a 0.6% gain for September.⁵

15-year FRMs averaging 4.33%. Freddie Mac has tracked these mortgages since 1991, and this is a new record low. A year ago, the average was 5.63%.⁶

What a difference a year makes. Bulls ruled Wall Street last week and we saw amazing Mon-Fri gains – the S&P 500 advanced 4.51%, the DJIA 3.98%, and the NASDAQ 4.45%.⁷

(Source: CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 10/9/09)^8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. Name two English words (longer than two letters) that both begin and end with the letters “he” (in that order).

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: What animal could become extinct worldwide, yet reappear about a year later?

Last week’s riddle answer: The mule.

Citations.
1 washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/05/AR2009100503631.html [10/6/09]
2 money.cnn.com/2009/10/09/markets/gold/?postversion=2009100914 [10/9/09]
3 reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN098081020091009 [9/8/09]
4 forbes.com/2009/10/09/briefing-americas-open-markets-economy-trade.html [10/9/09]
5 nytimes.com/2009/10/09/business/09shop.html?em [10/9/09]
6 inman.com/news/2009/10/9/mortgage-rates-breaking-records [10/9/09]
7 cnbc.com/id/33246500 [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/? [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F9%2F08&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F8%2F04&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F8%2F99&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F9%2F08&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F8%2F04&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F8%2F99&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F9%2F08&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F8%2F04&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/9/09]
8 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F8%2F99&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/9/09]
9 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/9/09]
9 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [10/9/09]
10 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/1999/ofn100699.pdf [10/6/99]

These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.

Presented by Mark Lund, The Investor Coach

Quote of the week. “The possible’s slow fuse is lit by the imagination.”– Emily Dickinson

Big jump in consumer spending. The C.A.R.S. program drove a 1.3% increase in personal spending for August – the biggest monthly leap north in this category since August 2001. Personal wages went up 0.2% for the second straight month.¹

Consumer worries persist. The jobless rate hit 9.8% for September, as employers cut 263,000 positions from payrolls. (The healthcare sector added 19,000 jobs last month.)² The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index came in at 53.1 for September, down from 54.5 for August.³

Manufacturing sector expands. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index indicated growth in that sector for the second straight month, with a reading of 52.6. However, economists polled by Reuters had expected a 54.0 reading in September, up from last month’s 52.9.⁴

Home prices rise, mortgage rates fall. The latest S&P Case-Shiller indexes showed home prices rising for the third month in a row in July (+1.6%). Freddie Mac’s October 1 survey had interest rates for 30-year FRMs averaging 4.94% nationally.^3,5

Oil starts the month impressively. Oil futures gained 5.95% last week; diesel and gasoline futures respectively gained 5.34% and 6.41%. (Retail pump prices averaged $2.47 per gallon of unleaded last week, compared to $3.60 per gallon a year ago.) In metals, gold and silver posted small weekly advances – gold rising 1.28% on the week, silver up 1.06%. In crops, sugar prices shot up 11.72% last week.⁶

Industry & jobs data impact stocks. The DJIA and S&P 500 both lost 1.84% last week; the NASDAQ slipped 2.05%. The economic calendar is light this coming week, with the ISM services index the most notable report.⁶

(Source: CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 9/25/09)^7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

Riddle of the week. What animal could become extinct worldwide, yet reappear about a year later?

Contact my office or see next week’s Update for the answer.

Last week’s riddle: It has keys that open no locks. Yet it lets you enter and create spaces. What is it?

Last week’s riddle answer: A keyboard.

Citations.
1 bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aSbaO.gu.aps [10/1/09]
2 latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs3-2009oct03,0,2971924.story [10/2/09]
3 online.wsj.com/article/SB125422914801649093.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_realestate [9/30/09]
4 forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/10/01/afx6955121.html [10/1/09]
5 freddiemac.com/pmms/ [10/2/09]
6 cnbc.com/id/33145027 [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/? [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F2%2F08&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F1%2F04&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F1%2F99&mode=add&symb=DJIA [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F2%2F08&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F1%2F04&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F1%2F99&mode=add&symb=COMP [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F2%2F08&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F1%2F04&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/2/09]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=10%2F1%2F99&mode=add&symb=SPX [10/2/09]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/2/09]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [10/2/09]
9 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/1999/ofn100699.pdf [10/6/99]

These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.